{"id":3745,"date":"2024-07-08T15:57:38","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T15:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stoxpo.com\/?p=3745"},"modified":"2024-07-08T15:57:39","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T15:57:39","slug":"nvidia-corp-raising-price-target-to-150-amid-strong-demand-for-blackwell-systems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stoxpo.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/nvidia-corp-raising-price-target-to-150-amid-strong-demand-for-blackwell-systems\/","title":{"rendered":"NVIDIA Corp: Raising Price Target to $150 Amid Strong Demand for Blackwell Systems"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Robust Demand and Supply Chain Strength Support Upgraded Outlook<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our latest assessment of NVIDIA Corp, we are raising our price target to $150 from the previous $120, reiterating our Buy rating on the stock. This decision follows comprehensive supply chain checks that confirm sustained and robust demand for Blackwell rack-scale systems, which has been a significant driver for our positive outlook on NVIDIA\u2019s financial performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong Demand and Positive EPS Projections<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our supply chain analysis indicates that demand momentum for Blackwell rack-scale systems remains exceptionally strong. Based on current order pipelines for NVL72\/36 systems, we believe that an EPS of approximately $5 for calendar year 2025 (CY25) is achievable. This projection is based on a material increase in orders compared to just two months ago, as hyperscaler budgets for CY25 become clearer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite recent market sentiment showing some decline, the fundamentals of NVIDIA\u2019s demand outlook remain robust. This slight dip in sentiment could ultimately prove healthy as it sets up a more realistic and sustainable growth trajectory. Consequently, we are revising our CY25 revenue and EPS estimates upwards by 12% and 15% respectively, projecting approximately $204 billion in revenue and an EPS of $4.95. These figures are significantly above the sell-side consensus of $161 billion in revenue and an EPS of $3.62.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Enhanced Supply Chain and Product Mix<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ongoing strong demand for Blackwell rack-scale systems is partly driven by their enhanced power efficiency, offering higher performance per watt compared to traditional server systems like B100\/B200 HGX\/DGX. This efficiency is crucial as power generation infrastructure faces increasing bottlenecks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response to this demand, the supply chain is also strengthening. Industry-wide CoWoS wafer capacity is expected to increase significantly, with TSMC accounting for over 80% of this capacity. NVIDIA\u2019s upcoming Blackwell Ultra, featuring advanced HBM3E technology, is expected to further boost ASP and mix, reinforcing our optimistic projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Detailed Analysis and Future Projections<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our analysis reveals that large-scale orders for NVL72\/36 systems have continued unabated since our last model update in late April. This indicates a substantial shift among hyperscale customers towards acquiring full-rack systems, translating to a richer revenue mix for NVIDIA. We now project around 69,000 NVL systems will ship in CY25, an increase from the previous estimate of 52,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Further, the industry\u2019s CoWoS wafer capacity is projected to exit CY24\/CY25 at approximately 45\/65 kilowatts per month, marking a 170% and 45% year-over-year increase, respectively. This supply chain capacity expansion supports our revised revenue projections, with each additional 5,000 NVL shipments for CY25 potentially adding $9 billion in revenue and $0.20 in EPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moreover, the forecasted growth in hyperscaler capital expenditure for CY24\/CY25 aligns closely with NVIDIA&#8217;s projected revenue growth, providing additional support for our above-consensus estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Valuation and Estimate Revisions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our new $150 price target is based on a 28x P\/E multiple applied to the average CY25\/CY26E non-GAAP EPS of $5.25. This reflects our confidence in NVIDIA\u2019s ability to maintain strong performance and growth momentum over the next few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For CY24, our estimates remain unchanged. However, for CY25, we are revising total revenue upwards to $204.4 billion from $177.9 billion, primarily driven by increased data center revenue. Similarly, for CY26, we are raising total revenue projections to $224.8 billion from $180.2 billion. Consequently, we have updated our EPS estimates for CY25\/CY26 from $4.22\/$4.27 to $4.95\/$5.55.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upside and Downside Scenarios<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our upside scenario, we model total revenue for CY25\/CY26 to reach $210.8 billion and $242.6 billion, respectively, with gaming and data center segments showing substantial growth. This scenario assumes net income margins of 63% and 65%, respectively, resulting in an average EPS of $5.83 and a potential upside valuation of $187.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, in our downside scenario, total revenue is modeled at $182.7 billion for CY25 and $192.7 billion for CY26, with more modest growth rates. This scenario assumes net income margins of 54% and 56%, leading to an average EPS of $4.15 and a downside valuation of $99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, our comprehensive analysis supports a strong outlook for NVIDIA, justifying our revised price target and Buy rating. The company&#8217;s robust demand, enhanced supply chain capabilities, and strategic product mix position it well for continued growth and value creation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You might like this article:<a href=\"https:\/\/stoxpo.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/cinematic-shifts-navigating-the-rocky-roads-of-the-2q24-box-office\/\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Cinematic Shifts: Navigating the Rocky Roads of the 2Q24 Box Office<\/mark><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Robust Demand and Supply Chain Strength Support Upgraded Outlook In our latest assessment of NVIDIA Corp, we are raising our price target to $150 from the previous $120, reiterating our Buy rating on the stock. This decision follows comprehensive supply chain checks that confirm sustained and robust demand for Blackwell rack-scale systems, which has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"8","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar-narrow","sidebar":"author","second_sidebar":"single-right","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"0","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"enable_post_split":"0","post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[362,312,311],"tags":[421,416,418,417],"coauthors":[454],"class_list":["post-3745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mega-cap","category-semiconductors","category-software","tag-growth","tag-movers","tag-news","tag-stock-market"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NVIDIA Corp: Raising Price Target to $150 Amid Strong Demand for Blackwell Systems - Stoxpo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/stoxpo.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/nvidia-corp-raising-price-target-to-150-amid-strong-demand-for-blackwell-systems\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NVIDIA Corp: Raising Price Target to $150 Amid Strong Demand for Blackwell Systems - Stoxpo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Robust Demand and Supply Chain Strength Support Upgraded Outlook In our latest assessment of NVIDIA Corp, we are raising our price target to $150 from the previous $120, reiterating our Buy rating on the stock. 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