Slow RSV shot adoption and waning COVID-19 vaccine sales weigh on revenue projections
Moderna (MRNA) announced a $1 billion reduction in its 2025 sales forecast on Monday, citing slow adoption of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines. The news sent the company’s stock plummeting more than 18% in premarket trading to $34.59, reflecting a 58% loss in value over the past year.
The biotech company now projects annual revenue of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, primarily in the second half of 2025. This falls short of its prior estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion and market expectations of $2.95 billion, according to data from LSEG.
Strategic Cost-Cutting Measures
To offset the revenue shortfall, Moderna plans to reduce its 2025 cash costs by $1 billion and an additional $500 million in 2026. CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized the company’s financial discipline, stating that Moderna expects to end 2025 with approximately $6 billion in cash and investments.
Future Growth Bets on Pipeline Innovation
Moderna is banking on new products to reignite growth. It has submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for a combination COVID-19 and influenza vaccine. Additionally, the FDA is expected to make a decision on its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine by May 2025.
The company also aims to deliver trial data for its seasonal flu vaccine this year, provided enough cases are recorded during the first flu season. If not, the trial will extend into a second season.
Challenges in the Pipeline
In a setback, an independent review of a late-stage trial for Moderna’s cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine—a candidate targeting an infection linked to birth defects—found that the vaccine did not meet early efficacy criteria. However, the review board recommended continuing the trial, with results expected later this year.
Looking Ahead
Moderna’s struggles highlight the challenges of sustaining growth after the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a meteoric rise in vaccine demand. The company remains focused on diversifying its pipeline and cutting costs to navigate a tough biotech market.
Investors will closely watch Moderna’s fourth-quarter results, scheduled for February 14, for further insights into its evolving strategy and market positioning.
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