Mackenzie Investments’ Anthony Carullo highlights AI, gold, and defensive leaders as key themes
The remainder of 2025 is shaping up to be defined by economic fragility and selective growth opportunities, according to Anthony Carullo, Associate at Mackenzie Investments. While global markets continue to show resilience in certain sectors, rising tariffs, higher-for-longer interest rates, and uneven trade flows are weighing on growth.
A Fragile Macro Backdrop
Carullo notes that Bloomberg consensus places the probability of a mild recession in developed markets at over 40%. U.S. labor markets remain relatively strong, but the drag from cumulative tariffs since 2018 has already shaved nearly 2% off global trade volumes, according to the IMF. “Renewed protectionism signals further drag ahead,” he cautions.
Still, not all sectors are equally exposed. Technology, especially semiconductors and AI infrastructure, continues to deliver secular growth. Goldman Sachs projects AI infrastructure spending will exceed $200 billion by 2027, with near-term investment focused on software and data pipelines and longer-term inflection points in robotics and automation. Conversely, cyclical areas like consumer discretionary and industrials face mounting pressure from softer demand and volatile input costs.
Gold’s extraordinary rally is another standout theme. Prices surged nearly 38% year-to-date, reaching $3,673/oz in September 2025 and setting 26 new records in the first half of the year alone, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank buying, Fed easing expectations, and heightened geopolitical risk continue to reinforce bullion’s role as a hedge. Consumer staples also look resilient, with historical outperformance of 8–10 percentage points during recessions (Morningstar), as households prioritize affordability over discretionary spending.
Overall, Carullo expects equity markets to deliver high single-digit to low double-digit gains by year-end, led by select growth and defensive segments.
Stock Picks for Late 2025
NVIDIA (NVDA): Carullo’s top conviction pick remains NVIDIA, which he calls “the backbone of the AI economy.” Since his 2023 recommendation, the stock has surged over 1,000% on the strength of its leadership in data center compute and AI applications. With gross margins above 70% and R&D spending more than 25% of revenue, NVIDIA is well-positioned to capture what Bank of America projects could be 60%+ of incremental AI infrastructure spending by 2026.
Walmart (WMT): As a defensive play, Walmart offers stability in volatile conditions. With 240 million weekly customers and AI-enabled supply chains expected to deliver $10–12 billion in annual savings by 2026, Walmart is expanding beyond retail into e-commerce, fintech, and healthcare. Carullo sees it as both a hedge against inflation and a platform for growth.
Newmont Corporation (NEM): For gold exposure, Carullo points to Newmont as one of the cleanest leveraged plays on the metal’s rally. With central banks buying for 11 consecutive quarters and prices at record highs, Newmont’s scale, diversification, and disciplined capital returns make it a compelling dual-purpose asset: cyclical upside with defensive resilience.
Conclusion
Carullo’s outlook is clear: while global growth faces headwinds, opportunities remain in AI, gold, and defensive consumer leaders. By balancing growth exposure with hedges, investors can navigate what he sees as a fragile but investable landscape for the rest of 2025.
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