FanDuel gears up new “Predicts” app with CME; M&A lifts international, India impairment and Boyd payment drive headline net loss
Flutter (FLUT) delivered a mixed third quarter: strong top-line momentum and iGaming outperformance offset by tough sports results, stepped-up competition at the NFL kickoff, and regulatory shocks in India. Group average monthly players rose 9% and revenue climbed 17% year over year to $3.79 billion, aided by the Snai and Betnacional acquisitions and excellent organic iGaming growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 6% to $478 million, though margin compressed 130 bps as mix and results moved against the sportsbook.
In the U.S., FanDuel’s product-driven iGaming growth (+44% revenue) powered a 9% overall revenue increase to $1.37 billion, more than offsetting a 5% decline in sportsbook revenue. Sportsbook AMP growth rebounded to 5% (vs. –4% in Q2), but Q3 Adjusted EBITDA slipped 12% to $51 million as early-season NFL outcomes favored customers and rivals dialed up uneconomic promotional offers. Flutter responded by increasing Q4 investment; quarter-to-date, U.S. handle is up 10% with the NBA season off to a strong start.
International revenue jumped 21% to $2.43 billion (Adj. EBITDA +10% to $505 million), with SEA and Italy a standout in iGaming. Organic sportsbook revenue fell 6% against a tough prior-year comp that included the Euros and more bookmaker-friendly results. Regionally, Brazil surged on M&A, CEE grew double-digits, and APAC declined on Australia results and India’s shutdown of real-money games.
Despite operational progress, the group reported a $789 million net loss (vs. a $114 million loss a year ago), driven by a $556 million non-cash impairment tied to India’s abrupt regulatory change and a previously flagged $205 million payment to Boyd to revise U.S. market access. Operating cash flow and free cash flow fell 28% and 78%, respectively, largely due to the Boyd outlay. Leverage rose to 4.0x (3.7x including Snai’s LTM EBITDA), with management reiterating a medium-term 2.0–2.5x target. Share repurchases continued, bringing total cash returned since program inception to $1.12 billion.
Guidance was recalibrated to reflect (i) Q3 trading, (ii) customer-friendly sports results in Q4 to date (about $170 million EBITDA impact through Nov. 9), (iii) higher Q4 sportsbook investment, (iv) the launch investment for FanDuel Predicts, (v) treating Illinois’s wager fee as taxable, and (vi) India’s regulatory changes. At the midpoint, 2025 revenue is now $16.69 billion and adjusted EBITDA $2.915 billion—reductions of $570 million and $380 million from prior guidance, still implying robust year-over-year growth of 19% and 24%, respectively. U.S. revenue/EBITDA are guided to $7.17 billion/$935 million (existing states $7.20 billion/$1.005 billion; new states –$30 million/–$70 million). International revenue/EBITDA are guided to $9.52 billion/$2.24 billion.
Strategically, Flutter is expanding its U.S. footprint beyond regulated wagering with FanDuel Predicts, a new prediction-markets app launching in December via a joint venture with CME Group. The product will initially offer sports in states without sportsbook regulation (restricted to non-tribal lands) alongside financial and cultural markets in nearly all states. Management sees minimal cannibalization where sportsbooks already operate and frames Predicts as a powerful on-ramp into the FanDuel ecosystem ahead of future state legalization. Investment will be meaningful but disciplined: an incremental EBITDA cost of $40–$50 million in Q4-25 and $200–$300 million in 2026, weighted to the second half.
CEO Peter Jackson struck an optimistic tone: Flutter remains the clear No. 1 in U.S. online sports betting (Q3 GGR share 38%, NGR share 41%; September NGR share 47%) and is leveraging scale, proprietary pricing, and accelerated iGaming content to deepen engagement. With diversified growth engines, sharpened U.S. investment, and M&A integration momentum, management believes the group is positioned to capture emerging opportunities and drive sustainable, long-term value—even as sports variance and regulatory change create near-term noise.
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