Derivatives data points to fragile sentiment despite signs of short-term stabilization
Bitcoin resumed its downward trajectory as speculative traders shifted their attention toward surging metals markets, underscoring a broader rotation away from risk assets. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $76,000, extending a pullback that briefly rebounded from a 10-month low. The move revived bearish sentiment that nearly pushed prices to their weakest level since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House just over a year ago.
While crypto-native venues such as Hyperliquid remain dominated by trading in memecoins and native tokens, they have also become unexpected gauges of broader macro positioning. Trading activity in non-crypto perpetual futures tied to metals has surged, highlighting growing investor interest in traditional safe havens. On Hyperliquid, silver-linked perpetual futures posted more than $1 billion in volume over the past 24 hours—roughly triple that of the next most active non-crypto contract backed by gold.
Signals from the derivatives market suggest caution remains warranted. Open interest across crypto futures has dropped sharply, according to data from CME Group and Coinglass, indicating traders are reducing exposure rather than positioning for a decisive rebound. Funding rates for perpetual futures have also turned negative, reflecting stronger demand for bearish bets.
Options markets show a mixed picture. While demand for downside protection has eased, strike price concentrations suggest investors remain uneasy. Data from Deribit points to $75,000 as a critical support level, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to $74,541 before stabilizing. Below that, analysts are watching the $70,000 area as the next key zone of potential support.
Industry voices remain divided. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, noted that Bitcoin’s recent behavior challenges assumptions about its role as a hedge. Meanwhile, FalconX’s Sean McNulty said extreme downside fear appears to be moderating, though a weekly close below $75,000 could open the door to further declines.
Adding pressure, net outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds totaled about $1.1 billion this month, according to Wintermute. With implied volatility still elevated near 49%, traders remain braced for continued swings as markets search for a durable catalyst.
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