Zepbound and Mounjaro Drive U.S. Sales, Yet Orforglipron Trial Results Raise Investor Concerns
Eli Lilly (LLY) delivered a solid second-quarter earnings beat, but concerns over its experimental oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, overshadowed the strong financials and dragged the stock lower. Despite a 38% year-over-year jump in revenue, shares dipped in early trading Thursday and are down 4% year to date.
The pharmaceutical giant reported Q2 revenue of $15.56 billion, well above Wall Street’s $14.69 billion estimate, with earnings per share of $6.31 versus expectations of $5.56. U.S. sales alone accounted for $10.81 billion, fueled by a 46% increase in sales volume of its GLP-1 blockbusters, Mounjaro and Zepbound. However, an 8% price decline slightly tempered overall growth.
Zepbound, in particular, continues to gain ground in the weight-loss market. According to JPMorgan, Zepbound prescriptions surged 225% year over year to 418,000 weekly prescriptions, surpassing Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which grew just 35% with 281,000 weekly prescriptions.
Still, investor enthusiasm cooled over orforglipron, Eli Lilly’s once-promising oral GLP-1 candidate. In late-stage trials, the highest dose saw a 25% patient dropout rate, raising red flags. Mizuho analyst Jared Holz pointed out that even the placebo group had a 29% dropout rate, calling the findings “odd” and prompting calls for more clarity.
The company plans to file orforglipron’s data with the FDA this year, with hopes to launch by 2026. In the meantime, Eli Lilly continues to benefit from Zepbound’s dominance, capturing over 60% of new weight-loss prescriptions in the U.S.
CEO Dave Ricks summed it up: “Lilly delivered another quarter of strong performance,” yet investors remain cautious about the long-term pipeline.
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