Sovereign investments and enterprise AI buildouts drive bullish outlook as Nvidia nears $4 trillion market cap
Citi is doubling down on Nvidia (NVDA), raising its price target to $190 per share — a 15% upside from current levels — as demand for AI infrastructure continues to surge, especially from sovereign governments. The move reflects growing confidence that Nvidia will capture a larger share of a rapidly expanding market, cementing its position as a cornerstone of global AI deployment.
“We believe sovereign demand is already contributing up to billions of dollars in 2025,” wrote Citi analysts Atif Malik and Papa Sylla. “Nvidia is involved in essentially every sovereign deal,” they added, highlighting the company’s pivotal role in national AI infrastructure buildouts.
Citi raised its 2028 total addressable market (TAM) estimate for AI compute to $563 billion, up 13% from prior forecasts. Networking TAM was also boosted to $119 billion from $90 billion, signaling higher expectations for Nvidia’s data center and networking businesses.
Nvidia’s Generative AI conference further bolstered the bullish case. Attendees discussed a benchmark for AI infrastructure: one supercomputer or 10,000 GPUs per 100,000 employees — a ratio that could accelerate AI adoption across governments and large enterprises. With Nvidia’s Blackwell GB200 chips already powering many of these clusters, Citi noted that deployment is ramping up swiftly and that previous concerns about supply chain bottlenecks are easing.
Looking ahead, Citi expects Nvidia’s data center revenue to grow 5% in FY 2027 and 11% in FY 2028, with networking revenue surging 12% and 27%, respectively. Gross margins are forecast to normalize in the mid-70% range by year-end.
While risks remain — particularly potential export restrictions if a second Trump administration emerges — Citi remains optimistic. Reports suggest that Malaysia and Thailand may come under scrutiny for routing advanced chips to China, but these geopolitical headwinds have yet to dent the broader AI boom.
“Nvidia has line of sight to tens of gigawatts of sovereign and enterprise AI factory buildouts over the next few years,” the analysts wrote.
With its stock up 12% over the past month and a market cap approaching $4 trillion, Nvidia continues to ride the wave of the AI revolution — and Citi sees plenty more upside ahead.
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