Analysts expect Tesla to report roughly 463,000 deliveries as investors weigh regional trends, FSD growth and the delayed Roadster reveal
Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release its highly anticipated third-quarter delivery figures at the end of the week, with Wall Street preparing for a year-over-year decline in vehicle shipments.
Bloomberg consensus estimates call for approximately 463,000 deliveries, down 6.8% from roughly 497,000 vehicles in the same quarter last year and also lower sequentially from the second quarter.
Regional performance remains mixed. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta said European Union registrations declined approximately 9% year over year, with strength in France and Germany offset by weakness in several other major markets. In China, July-August wholesale volumes rose 19%, driven by a 92% surge in exports, while estimated domestic retail sales fell 21%.
JPMorgan lowered its own Q3 delivery estimate to 482,000 vehicles, citing weakness in China and the U.S.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving business could provide another area of investor focus. The company reported 1.48 million FSD subscriptions at the end of Q2, up 56% year over year.
Meanwhile, Tesla postponed its second-generation Roadster reveal from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, citing severe weather conditions and the outdoor requirements of the event.
The delivery report will provide investors with another important gauge of global demand heading into the final quarter of 2026.
