Intel leads the season as investors weigh hyperscaler capex, PC demand, Apple momentum, and Nvidia’s China risk.
The first wave of Big Tech earnings for the new year begins this week, with Intel set to report results after the bell on Thursday. While individual company performance will matter, the dominant theme across the market remains the same: artificial intelligence. Investors want clear answers on how tech giants are monetizing their massive AI investments—and whether the spending cycle still has room to run.
Hyperscalers including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to continue pouring billions into data centers, chips, and infrastructure. Amazon previously indicated it expects to spend roughly $125 billion in 2025 and even more in 2026. Google has guided to $91–$93 billion in 2025 capex, with another step-up expected next year. Meta’s projected spending range moved higher as well, with management pointing to infrastructure costs and rising expenses into 2026. Microsoft has also signaled that capex will exceed its already massive 2025 total after a record quarterly spend to support AI build-out.
These numbers matter because the market is pricing in strong AI-driven growth. Consensus expectations call for AWS revenue to rise about 21%, Microsoft commercial cloud to jump 25%, and Google Cloud growth to accelerate roughly 35%. Any miss could send ripple effects through the AI ecosystem, from chipmakers to data center suppliers.
Outside the cloud race, attention will shift to PCs and consumer demand. Intel and AMD are in focus as Microsoft ends support for Windows 10, potentially driving an upgrade cycle. However, a global memory shortage—fueled by AI data center demand—could raise PC prices and pressure unit sales.
Apple also enters earnings season with expectations for strong iPhone performance, though investors remain focused on whether China demand stabilizes.
And hovering over the entire quarter is Nvidia, still the primary bellwether for the AI trade. Beyond blockbuster expectations, the key variable is China, where policy, restrictions, and pricing dynamics could shape growth. Even strong results may not be enough if geopolitical and tariff concerns resurface, keeping volatility high throughout earnings season.
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